{ "summary": { "participants": 600, "topics": 21, "comparisons": 12600, "mae": 8.838174603174604, "mae_ci": [ 8.628563492063492, 9.056430555555556 ], "median_absolute_error": 7.0, "rmse": 11.698605940554668, "within_10": 0.6824603174603174, "within_20": 0.9138095238095238, "individual_pearson_r": 0.9000373934076439, "topic_mean_mae": 5.4278571428571425, "topic_mean_pearson_r": 0.970853189961729, "same_side_non_neutral": 0.8988630038960006, "same_side_denominator": 12577, "generic_movement": 3.3774603174603173, "generic_ci": [ 3.2865813492063496, 3.4653194444444444 ], "personalized_movement": 6.9098412698412695, "personalized_ci": [ 6.783251984126984, 7.04063492063492 ], "paired_advantage": 3.532380952380952, "paired_advantage_ci": [ 3.3849742063492063, 3.6919900793650795 ], "personalized_greater_fraction": 0.7673809523809524, "ties_fraction": 0.1434126984126984, "generic_greater_fraction": 0.0892063492063492, "personalized_backfire_fraction": 0.006666666666666667, "personalized_no_movement_fraction": 0.09912698412698413, "interpretation": "Descriptive analysis of supplied exports, identified by the author as human responses despite legacy synthetic/simulated field names. Author confirms 600 participants recruited after training, excluded from training, and both messages shown in randomized order. No no-message condition; follow-ups ongoing. Paired differences do not adjust for carryover.", "bootstrap": "4000 participant-cluster resamples, seed 20260913, percentile 95% intervals; topics held fixed. Descriptive paired-row intervals assume participant IDs are the sampling unit." }, "topics": [ { "question_id": "T01_AI_EMPLOYMENT", "topic": "AI and employment", "question": "Employers that replace workers with AI should be required to contribute to a fund that retrains and financially supports displaced workers.", "mae": 7.361666666666666, "prediction_mean": 77.31666666666666, "response_mean": 78.725, "generic": 1.9316666666666666, "personalized": 4.678333333333334, "advantage": 2.7466666666666666 }, { "question_id": "T02_IMMIGRATION", "topic": "Immigration", "question": "The national government should substantially reduce the total number of legal immigrants admitted each year.", "mae": 11.021666666666667, "prediction_mean": 39.86333333333334, "response_mean": 30.761666666666667, "generic": 3.618333333333333, "personalized": 5.435, "advantage": 1.8166666666666667 }, { "question_id": "T03_ASYLUM", "topic": "Refugees and asylum", "question": "People seeking asylum should be allowed to remain in the country while their claims are reviewed, even when the review takes more than one year.", "mae": 7.578333333333333, "prediction_mean": 66.97666666666667, "response_mean": 71.83833333333334, "generic": 2.7983333333333333, "personalized": 5.49, "advantage": 2.691666666666667 }, { "question_id": "T04_CRIME_REHABILITATION", "topic": "Crime and punishment", "question": "Prisons should prioritize rehabilitation over punishment for people convicted of non-violent crimes.", "mae": 4.41, "prediction_mean": 81.20833333333333, "response_mean": 82.35833333333333, "generic": 2.1883333333333335, "personalized": 5.086666666666667, "advantage": 2.8983333333333334 }, { "question_id": "T05_DEATH_PENALTY", "topic": "Death penalty", "question": "The death penalty should be legally available for people convicted of the most serious murders.", "mae": 9.456666666666667, "prediction_mean": 30.88, "response_mean": 27.836666666666666, "generic": 1.2416666666666667, "personalized": 2.1983333333333333, "advantage": 0.9566666666666667 }, { "question_id": "T06_ABORTION", "topic": "Abortion policy", "question": "Abortion should generally be legal on request during the first twelve weeks of pregnancy.", "mae": 7.0216666666666665, "prediction_mean": 62.108333333333334, "response_mean": 61.64, "generic": 2.0766666666666667, "personalized": 4.536666666666667, "advantage": 2.46 }, { "question_id": "T07_CLIMATE", "topic": "Climate policy", "question": "The government should tax carbon emissions and return the collected money equally to residents.", "mae": 7.491666666666666, "prediction_mean": 60.205, "response_mean": 64.45333333333333, "generic": 6.378333333333333, "personalized": 9.431666666666667, "advantage": 3.0533333333333332 }, { "question_id": "T08_VACCINATION", "topic": "Vaccination policy", "question": "Routine childhood vaccinations should be required for attendance at state-funded schools, except when a medical exemption applies.", "mae": 12.386666666666667, "prediction_mean": 81.91, "response_mean": 94.26333333333334, "generic": 1.985, "personalized": 5.165, "advantage": 3.18 }, { "question_id": "T09_LGBT_RIGHTS", "topic": "LGBT rights", "question": "Same-sex couples should have exactly the same legal rights as opposite-sex couples in marriage, adoption and family law.", "mae": 9.768333333333333, "prediction_mean": 82.48833333333333, "response_mean": 92.09, "generic": 0.6066666666666667, "personalized": 2.885, "advantage": 2.2783333333333333 }, { "question_id": "T10_TRANS_POLICY", "topic": "Transgender policy", "question": "Adults should be able to change their legal gender without requiring a medical diagnosis.", "mae": 9.965, "prediction_mean": 57.696666666666665, "response_mean": 63.475, "generic": 4.166666666666667, "personalized": 7.176666666666667, "advantage": 3.01 }, { "question_id": "T11_DEFENCE_SPENDING", "topic": "Foreign policy and war", "question": "The government should increase military spending, even if this requires reducing spending on some domestic programs.", "mae": 7.71, "prediction_mean": 35.35, "response_mean": 33.17666666666667, "generic": 3.1683333333333334, "personalized": 6.083333333333333, "advantage": 2.915 }, { "question_id": "T12_REDISTRIBUTION", "topic": "Redistribution", "question": "The government should increase taxes on the highest-earning 10% of households to provide additional support to the lowest-earning 20%.", "mae": 6.473333333333334, "prediction_mean": 66.92833333333333, "response_mean": 66.68833333333333, "generic": 3.9383333333333335, "personalized": 7.165, "advantage": 3.2266666666666666 }, { "question_id": "T13_FREE_SPEECH", "topic": "Free speech and censorship", "question": "Social-media platforms should be legally required to remove false claims that create a serious and immediate risk of public harm.", "mae": 7.51, "prediction_mean": 69.36666666666666, "response_mean": 72.61333333333333, "generic": 5.585, "personalized": 9.545, "advantage": 3.96 }, { "question_id": "T14_SURVEILLANCE", "topic": "Surveillance and privacy", "question": "The government should be allowed to use facial-recognition technology in public places to prevent and investigate serious crimes.", "mae": 13.005, "prediction_mean": 56.38666666666666, "response_mean": 44.36833333333333, "generic": 6.023333333333333, "personalized": 10.298333333333334, "advantage": 4.275 }, { "question_id": "T15_TRUST_GOVERNMENT", "topic": "Trust in government", "question": "If the government said that a popular phone app was secretly sending users' data to another country but could not show all its evidence, I would support banning the app.", "mae": 18.328333333333333, "prediction_mean": 43.60333333333333, "response_mean": 26.285, "generic": 6.165, "personalized": 13.69, "advantage": 7.525 }, { "question_id": "T16_TRUST_MEDIA", "topic": "Trust in media", "question": "After an election, major news outlets say there is no evidence of widespread cheating, while thousands of posts online say the election was stolen. I would trust the news outlets.", "mae": 10.9, "prediction_mean": 64.77333333333333, "response_mean": 75.13, "generic": 2.1216666666666666, "personalized": 8.658333333333333, "advantage": 6.536666666666667 }, { "question_id": "T17_TRUST_SCIENCE", "topic": "Trust in scientists", "question": "If most medical scientists say that vaping causes serious long-term harm, I would believe them even if people I know vape and say it is harmless.", "mae": 4.781666666666666, "prediction_mean": 85.43, "response_mean": 89.73833333333333, "generic": 2.505, "personalized": 5.048333333333333, "advantage": 2.5433333333333334 }, { "question_id": "T18_TRUST_CORPORATIONS", "topic": "Trust in corporations", "question": "If a car company says that a safety fault is rare and drivers can keep using the car, I would trust the company until an independent investigation finds a wider problem.", "mae": 7.6033333333333335, "prediction_mean": 26.51, "response_mean": 27.236666666666668, "generic": 1.1783333333333332, "personalized": 7.738333333333333, "advantage": 6.56 }, { "question_id": "T19_TRUST_UNIVERSITIES", "topic": "Trust in universities", "question": "A university study says that a popular food is safe, but the study was paid for by the company selling it. I would still trust the result if the researchers published their methods and data.", "mae": 6.58, "prediction_mean": 61.015, "response_mean": 65.87833333333333, "generic": 6.651666666666666, "personalized": 10.311666666666667, "advantage": 3.66 }, { "question_id": "T20_RELIGION_POLICY", "topic": "Religion and public policy", "question": "Religious organizations should be exempt from laws that conflict with their beliefs, even when the same laws apply to other organizations.", "mae": 7.863333333333333, "prediction_mean": 25.781666666666666, "response_mean": 24.488333333333333, "generic": 4.156666666666666, "personalized": 10.568333333333333, "advantage": 6.411666666666667 }, { "question_id": "T21_ANIMAL_WELFARE", "topic": "Animal welfare and meat consumption", "question": "People who can stay healthy on a vegan diet should stop eating meat, eggs and dairy because animals should not be used for food.", "mae": 8.385, "prediction_mean": 24.68166666666667, "response_mean": 19.256666666666668, "generic": 2.441666666666667, "personalized": 3.9166666666666665, "advantage": 1.475 } ] }